All data presented is as of Friday morning. Kansas City Chiefs. Hell, Mahomes has just one loss over his past 26 starts. However, I am confident that Brady can orchestrate a close game, especially considering the Bucs are the first team in Super Bowl history to play the big game in their home stadium. Just look at the remarkable feats both short and long-term by Brady. If you include his three playoff games, nobody has passed for more gross yards since the NFL season kicked off 5, Even if Brady does not earn his seventh Lombardi Trophy, he has the offensive weapons to keep the Bucs close.
He averages This Bucs defense has been absolutely stellar, especially two weeks ago in Green Bay. With linebacker Devin White everywhere on the field, Lavonte David stuffing the run, and an experienced defensive line wreaking havoc on the pocket, this team should never be counted out. The Model points out an interesting trend: Tampa is in all games in which the total is greater than Of course, some people just hate betting spreads.
Patrick Mahomes is a wizard with the football, doing things we never thought possible. The Chiefs finished the regular season with the best record, somehow improving upon its offense. Kansas City also greatly benefited from the hire of Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator.
My bet is on the Chiefs winning this year, completing the three-peat next year, and becoming the next great dynasty of the NFL. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. This game opened at a whopping It remains high at 56, where it settled on Jan. But we just do not see both teams flirting with 30 points here. The OVER has been getting pounded by the betting public, including an unfathomable 72 percent of sharp money.
Not only would Saban earn his seventh national title in this game, but he would also tie Bryant for national titles won in Tuscaloosa. The vibe is different for Ohio State head coach Ryan Day, who is in his second year of the position after serving as offensive coordinator for Urban Meyer back to Day is building quite the resume in his short career, with a straight-up record as head coach or interim head coach.
This is unprecedented territory for Day, who has collected an against-the-spread mark since taking the job to start Ohio State has been favored by at least nine in every single game coached by Day with the exception of two meetings against Clemson. The victory against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl was the revenge Ohio State had been seeking the entire season. The Buckeyes averaged 8. Despite an average of 8. While the Sugar Bowl provided a college football consumer with plenty of highlights, the Rose Bowl proved to be a grinding slugfest.
With a two-touchdown lead after the first quarter, the Crimson Tide downshifted the tempo to keep Notre Dame multiple scores away. The offensive game plan was by design, as quarterback Mac Jones attempted just four deep balls against the Irish secondary, per Pro Football Focus.
Although quarterback Ian Book had sustained drives with at least two first downs in over half of his possessions, the Irish could only capitalize in two of their five trips past the Alabama yard line. Success in passing downs during the fourth quarter led to a Notre Dame cover of the full game spread. If the history of the playoff is any indication of results, Ohio State is in great shape heading into Miami. The lower seeds are straight up against higher seeds at the championship stage.
LSU in was the first No. These two teams represent the only four-seeded programs to win the playoff, as Ohio State accomplished the feat in and Alabama did so in All-time appearances in 7-year history of CFBPlayoff. St 1 Washington 1 Ohio State is all-time in the College Football Playoff, breaking a win drought since the national title run in January Through 10 playoff games in the championship or semifinals, Saban has covered just three games.
Per Action Labs, two of those games came as multi-score favorites against Washington in and Michigan State in This total is historically high, with an opener at BetMGM of That edition of the championship game fielded NFL talent at every position and ended with 85 total points. Only 10 postseason games have closed with a total of 76 or higher since , per Action Labs, with an even distribution of five games to the under and five to the over.
As for the National Championship, the viewing might require a seatbelt. Both Alabama and Ohio State have decimated the competition from an offensive perspective, ranking top in plus yard drives and scoring drive percentage. Owens recorded 57 snaps and allowed two quarterback hurries and committed a penalty. The senior has played more than snaps in his four-year career for the Crimson Tide but has allowed more pressure than any other offensive lineman this season.
Alabama countered the loss of its center by moving the pocket, using misdirection, and using quick-strike pass attacks to allow outside weapons to collect plenty of yards after catch. The great news for Alabama is that when Jones is under pressure, his numbers tend to rise in the accuracy department. Jones has the highest NFL ratings in dropbacks under pressure and the fifth-highest number in adjusted completion percentage.
As shown against the Irish, connecting with DeVonta Smith in the left or right outside receiver slot was the clear plan of attack on short passing attempts. If Ohio State plans on sending the blitz through the middle of the offensive line to challenge Owens at center, Alabama will have the option for the quick pass to targets in the flats. Ohio State runs predominantly in the scheme, sending blitzes on second down more than any other down and distance. That may be an opportunity for Alabama to strike deep in standard downs.
The Crimson Tide stay on schedule more than anyone in the country, specifically ranking second in FBS in average yards to go on second down at seven yards per attempt. Tyreke Smith and Jonathon Cooper have been two of the best defensive ends in the nation at generating pressure, but the Crimson Tide excel at the tackle position with Alex Leatherwood and Evan Neal.
After Owens was beaten on the block, Najee Harris showed his athletic skills by popping the run out to the sideline before executing the hurdle highlight. Alabama has the lowest third-and-out percentage in the nation at 7. Despite a lackluster set of offenses in the Big Ten, Ohio State ranks th in forcing three-and-outs on defense.
Considering Alabama has the lowest momentum killer rate in the Power Five, the Buckeyes will consistently have issues stopping a Crimson Tide team that is second in standard downs Success Rate. Despite the Crimson Tide holding the top spot in Power Five conferences for average yards to go on third down, Ohio State sits 25th in opponent third-down conversions. Tight end Jahleel Billingsley tied his season record of targets with four, catching every attempt and even going for a score against Notre Dame.
Mac Jones to Jahleel Billingsley for the touchdown in the back corner of the endzone. Cornerbacks Marcus Williamson and Sevyn Banks both missed two tackles each, as seven different defensive players allowed Trevor Lawrence to complete a target of 15 yards or more. That has been the critical data point for Ohio State all season long, as it ranks 84th in opponent big plays through the air. Specifically, Wade will have to stay with his assignments unlike he did on a Trevor Lawrence-to-Cornell Powell touchdown in the Sugar Bowl.
Trevor Lawrence stands tall as pressuring is coming down his throat phrasing pic. In 40 combined targets, Wade and Williamson are allowing opposing quarterback ratings over As for who on Alabama will find the most success in the passing game, that will come in the right outside receiver position.
That spot draws the most targets with a quarterback rating of While Williamson is expected to take the slot position defensively, Banks and Wade will defend the corner spots against Metchie and Smith. Smith split time most of the season between the slot and wideout position, but that ratio has grown for the outside position over the past two games.
Smith has 94 snaps as the left or right wideout and only 42 in the slot over the past two games against Notre Dame and Florida. One reason for Smith getting relief in the slot position is the emergence of Billingsley. The sophomore tight end lined up in the slot 14 times against Notre Dame, a decent amount of work before facing an Ohio State defense that struggles to defend the position.
After struggling in the Big Ten Championship game with two interceptions, Fields targeted Olave eight times against Clemson. To summarize the past two games for Ohio State, running back Trey Sermon has attacked the field like a man possessed. Although offensive left guard Harry Miller is expected to miss the national title game with a positive COVID result, sophomore Matthew Jones posted one of the highest run-blocking grades of the Sugar Bowl. Even with Jones exiting the game with an ankle injury, freshman Paris Johnson stepped in and continued to create holes big enough for a Brinks truck.
Expect the Buckeyes to continue running left, where they have found the most success the past two games. The list of targets gets super thin with Julian Fleming, Jameson Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njiba combining for 32 of the targets on the season. Prior to that game, Ruckert had not seen a target since Nov. Similar to Alabama, Day has called for an increase in the usage of 12 personnel. Of the 16 defensive players who have taken snaps in at least 11 games for the Tide, Harris and Moses grade as two of the bottom-six defenders in coverage.
Opposing quarterbacks have an NFL rating of on targets to Harris, while Moses has allowed an average of Ohio State should have plenty of success in Sermon rushing attempts and any targets crossing the middle on passing downs. Where the Buckeyes will run into resistance is testing the Alabama secondary, which grades out as the second-best coverage unit, per PFF.
Tackling was the primary concern for the Tide after the high-scoring Ole Miss game, but Alabama quickly resolved those issues. The Crimson Tide tallied nine missed tackles against Notre Dame, with four of them coming from outside linebacker Christopher Allen.
Execution is the path to victory for the Buckeyes. When the Crimson Tide defense breaks down, the result is chunk-yardage touchdowns. Consider that of the 27 touchdowns the Crimson Tide have allowed, nine of them came from longer than 30 yards out. Alabama ranks th in the nation in allowing touchdowns from plus yards with eight total on the season.
Both Ole Miss and Florida ended the season with an overall Offensive Success Rate and explosiveness rank in the top Ohio State is third in both categories, making this the most difficult challenge of the season for the Alabama defense. We mentioned momentum killer rates — a stat that groups interceptions, fumbles, missed field goals, sacks, turnover on downs and plus yard penalties — in the Alabama section.
While the Crimson Tide offense has the second-lowest momentum killer rate in the country, Ohio State is 77th at 9. The largest portion of the momentum killer rate comes in sacks and plus yard penalties. The Buckeyes have the 23rd-highest rate in FBS of yard penalties, while sacks have been a season-long issue for the offensive line. Football Outsiders grades Ohio State th offensively in Sack Rate, a number that plummets to nd in standard downs.
Fields ranks rd in NFL passer rating and 99th in adjusted completion rate during pressured dropbacks with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Alabama will bring pressure with Will Anderson Jr. RollTide pic. An additional area of concern for the offensive line is tackles for loss, as the unit ranks 84th , averaging 6. The coming-out party for Sermon has done little to stop these gaps in run blocking, as Clemson posted six tackles for loss and stuffed of rushing attempts.
Ohio State is one of the top offensive lines in the nation in Stuff Rate, which indicates the percentage of carries by running backs who are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage, per Football Outsiders. Alabama does boast a top defensive Havoc rate, but a large portion of that comes from statistics outside of tackles for loss. Alabama has forced 15 fumbles this season, just one shy from the overall FBS leader in Coastal Carolina. Where the Crimson Tide defense shines is in breaking up passes.
With 69 passes defensed, Alabama averaged 5. From a penthouse looking down, a simple overall rank would favor Alabama in the special teams department. A college football season does not seem complete without a breakdown in the Bama kicking department. Just a short three years ago, kicker Andy Pappanastos had a chance to seal the national championship against Georgia with a yard attempt, but it ended up being his second miss of the game. Enter Will Reichard, an in-state recruit from Hoover, who went 4-of-7 in limited play through the early part of the season.
The sophomore went back to the drawing board in the offseason to produce a perfect season for Alabama. Reichard has hit all 13 field goals and 73 point-after attempts. Alabama has hit three field goals over 40 yards this season, including a yarder against Georgia. Ohio State has a senior placekicker in Blake Haubeil. In his three-year kicking career, the senior has posted 28 field-goal makes on 35 attempts.
Both kickers have connected on their attempts outside of 50 yards, so distance is not an issue. With a total in the mids, field-goal kicking may not be in the equation for much of this game. For the expected amount of kickoff returns, average starting field position may favor Alabama in winning the hidden yards battle.
Ohio State ranks th in kickoff return yards at The difference in punt return units is night and day, with Alabama ranking ninth in return average at This is an area that Alabama can change the game in with multiple options to score a touchdown.
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Home vs. Righties vs. Days of the week, months of the year, day vs. How much experience does a batter have against a pitcher and vice versa. These stats are also great ways to find value when live betting. A team having success against a starting pitcher may quickly run dry when the manager turns to the bullpen. Be sure to compare and contrast numbers over the course of a season to date vs.
The same goes for pitchers. Are there any outlier starts poor or great that are skewing the numbers in either direction? For those teams who play in outdoor stadiums, weather forecasts are as important a tool as any. The direction of the wind, whether toward home plate or over the center field wall, can greatly affect totals. Temperatures earlier in the season in environments such as Boston, New York or Cleveland can be cold and even come with snow.
As the temperatures rise and weather improves, run totals are also likely to climb. Be wary of when rain is expected to hit in the middle of a game. Watch out for when the books are trying to steer the betting action in a particular direction.
As noted above, a team like the Yankees will almost always be favored, or at the very least, will never be as big of an underdog as they may warrant. Teams on prolonged winning or losing streaks will also fetch lower or higher odds based on public perception outside of the matchup on the field. Similarly, the totals for a team struggling to generate offense over a period of multiple games will slowly decline. As the projections decrease, start betting the Overs.
Additionally, it can mean betting against a widely favored team such as the Yankees, who will typically have lower odds — and their opponents have higher odds — than they should, as the books hedge against the public slant. Similar to betting against the public, casual bettors and fans never expect bad teams or underdogs to win twice in a row. As a result, their odds often stay inflated following a victory which may have been the result of good bullpen performance, defense or an offensive outburst.
Teams stringing together long winning streaks are usually doing so on the backs of their pitchers. Instead of simply betting the winning team to keep winning, bet the Under of their games, either as a standalone of by parlaying it with a moneyline or run line wager. Betting the Under on its own helps to hedge against the risk of an eventual loss.
Oddsmakers will also artificially inflate the total when two winning teams are playing head-to-head. The fans watching are looking for runs and the books take advantage of this fan desire. Bet the Under on outlier numbers. This strategy is best when a division leader is playing against a team on a losing streak. The better team is obviously favored on both the moneyline and run line. While the losing team may be a massive underdog to win outright, they have a much better chance of losing by a single run.
As mentioned above, most sportsbooks offer welcome bonuses to new users. Understanding the rules of the bonuses and what goes into maximizing the potential earnings is key. One of the most common rules of the bonuses requires bettors to bet through the bonus amount a certain number of times. As sports betting rises in popularity, sportsbooks are creating more and more events. Beyond the basics of the moneyline, run line and total for a complete game, bettors can also get action on individual innings or segments of a game.
One can also bet on series scores and winners, especially come playoff time. Take advantage of these additional bet types as a way to boost your winning potential. There are enough statistics in baseball to support or disprove nearly any pick. Baseball stat keepers and sites such as Fangraphs are better than any other in breaking down splits by the situation.
Look deeper into the numbers for every underdog when searching for value. Has a team been hitting poorly of late? Is a team playing a road game in a venue with different dimensions than its home park? Is a team having more success against fly-ball or groundball pitchers? Be on the lookout for parks where doubles can turn into home runs and boost the run totals.
A point of contention within the fantasy baseball and MLB betting communities is the use of Batter vs. Pitcher statistics. Some like to highlight the one-on-one success of either against the other; however, the small sample sizes need to be acknowledged. Noting a batter has two home runs against a pitcher is fine and all, but over how long of a time period did it take? What happened in those other at-bats? The success of a divisional rival against an entire opposing pitching staff, or vice versa, across the tenure of a manager or pitching coach is far more important.
Also, avoid the temptation of big-payday parlays and teasers. Stick to individual games and events. A win is a win and you have a much better chance of long-term success by taking it slow and making a consistent profit, rather than looking to get rich quick and cash out. As the odds vary, alter your investment for the desired return. Due to the number of games during an MLB season, there are more opportunities to win than in any other pro sport.
Diversify your wagers for any one day while staying consistent with your number of bets. Stay even keel and change your approach before chasing lost money by betting bigger on higher odds. Shop around at different books. With online betting gaining steam across the nation, try creating an account at every legal book in your state. Betting at just a single book can often leave money on the table, even if you win.
Finally, avoid the big favorites and target more underdogs with plus-money returns. MLB odds for February 11, Baltimore Orioles. Boston Red Sox. New York Yankees. Tampa Bay Rays. Toronto Blue Jays. Chicago White Sox. Cleveland Indians. Detroit Tigers. Kansas City Royals. Minnesota Twins. Houston Astros. LA Angels. Oakland Athletics. Seattle Mariners. Texas Rangers. Atlanta Braves. Miami Marlins. New York Mets. Philadelphia Phillies.
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Home Subscribe Records Contact us. Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia L. Alessandria vs Giana Erminio. Rukh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava. Betting sites also host similar different formats but they are of big bets on the. Other people approach weather betting. Brighton vs Aston Villa. Aalborg vs Randers FC. The basic idea in all for completely different reasons. Some people simply bet on.NEWS · PLAYER UPDATES · DFS LINEUP BUILDER · DFS PLAYBOOK PRO · NFL WEATHER Super Bowl Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under, player bets, weaving in an extended preview of exclusive data from BetQL. Last round, I went three-for-three with my Best Bets, thanks in large. Weekend football betting guide: All of the trends for the NFL's conference title games Here's the outlook for games Jan. Each of the Buccaneers' past five games has gone over a total of 51 points. over Cleveland in the divisional round extended their winless streak against the spread to nine games. Check out live baseball betting odds in our MLB betting guide and talent discrepancies become more apparent, that range will extend on either end. For those teams who play in outdoor stadiums, weather forecasts are as important.