overbetting the floppy

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Overbetting the floppy

From whence came the idiotic notion that a loss "on paper" isn't a "real" loss until you actually sell the stock? Or that a profit isn't a profit until the stock is sold and the money is in the bank? Your stock and your portfolio is worth whatever you can sell it for, at the market, right at this moment. No more. No less. People are reluctant to sell a loser for a variety of reasons. That is false pride, and it's faulty thinking.

Your refusal to acknowledge a loss doesn't make it any less real. Hoping and waiting for a loser to come back and save your fragile pride is dumb. Your loser may NOT come back. Losses are a cost of doing business, a part of the game. If you never have losses, then you are not trading properly. Most pros have three losers for every winner.

They make money by keeping the losses small and letting the profits build. You should be almost happy to take a loss. It means that you have jettisoned an underachiever stock and have freed up that dead money to put to better use elsewhere. Take your losses ruthlessly, put them out of mind and don't look back, and turn your attention to your next trade. This gets into the realm of money management.

Diversification, the process of spreading your investment capital around in different assets and sectors to feather the vagaries of the market, has gotten a bit of a bum rap lately. Some of the New Paradigm folks think the concept is "old fashioned. That's not investing, or even trading. It's gambling.

Am I pleased I run a diversified portfolio, you bet I am. I have been investing in shares since and this is the second time this has happened to me. The other company was Scanro, during 's, a company which made world class surfboards. A very large company in the USA went into administration who also made surfboards and the administrator sold off their stock very cheaply which meant nobody purchased Scanro's surfboards.

Do you see the comparison? Preservation of capital is paramount. If you run out of chips, game over man. You may feel a bit envious the day your neighbor, who has put everything he owns into Zowie. Ten percent should be your absolute max. One more thing. I've checked the U. Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and nowhere in either of them does it say that you have to have ALL of your money in the stock market ALL of the time.

Money management also pertains to your total investment posture. You'll need it when you see that next "can't miss" stock but don't want to sell any of your other "can't miss" stocks to raise the money to buy it. Your exposure should be consistent with your overall market analysis. As the market becomes more overbought, overextended, and overvalued, your cash level should rise accordingly.

Then as the market gets more oversold and undervalued, you can raise your market exposure accordingly. Being ALL in the market or ALL out of the market sounds like a good idea, and it may work out wonderfully on paper, but it rarely plays out so smoothly in real life and real investing.

But you should still employ a sliding scale of exposure, based on your market analysis. Many of the daily e-mails I get are of the following type: "Nick, Zowie. Time to buy?!!! It's tempting to try to pinpoint an exact low, especially if you're working with indictors like Fibonacci fan and time lines, cycle studies, regression channels, even plain old lateral support points.

But it's almost always better to let the stock find its bottom on it's own, and then start to nibble. Just because a stock is down big doesn't mean it can't go down even bigger. In fact, a major multipoint drop is often just the beginning of a larger decline. It's always satisfying to catch an exact low tick, but when it happens it's usually by accident. Let stocks and markets bottom and top on their own and limit your efforts to recognizing the fact "soon enough.

Those who try usually get burned. Don't do it. For one thing, you shouldn't even have the opportunity, because you should have sold that dog before it got to the level where averaging down is tempting. The pros average UP, not down; they got to be pros because they added to winners, not losers. And speaking of averaging UP, there's a right way to do it. And doubling your position is not it. If other words, if you already own shares and want to bolster your position, you buy 50 shares.

If you later decide to add more, you add 25 shares, etc. Why you should do it this way is too long to go into here, but that's the way the math works out best for you. Yes, there are stocks that will go up in bear markets and stocks that will go down in bull markets, but it's usually not worth the effort to hunt for them.

And so should you. It doesn't make sense to counter trade the prevailing market trend. If you're worried about a short term pullback, simply cut back on your trading, take a few profits, and build up your stash of cash. There are some fine companies with mediocre stocks, and some mediocre companies with fine stocks. Try not to confuse the two.

This is, at heart, a fundamental analysis versus technical analysis issue. Some stocks simply have excellent trading characteristics while others don't. Maybe it's a matter of liquidity, or a fanatical message board following, or a daytrading clientele, or whatever. Take Amazon. Is the company a good one? Who knows? Not me. But the stock is. I wouldn't want to have to hold it for 20 years, but I sure don't mind trading it a few days at a time, the "right" days.

That sucker moves. Baby Bells are at the other end of the spectrum. Fine companies for the most part. Wouldn't mind owning one for 20 years. But you have to pick your spots when you go to trade them, because a measly 3 point move in a single session is huge for a Baby Bell. Also remember this: even the stock of a great company can go through a bad patch. IBM is a great company today, with its stock selling at , and it was a great company five years ago, when its stock was selling at This is related to confusing the company with its stock.

There are a lot of intriguing "stories" out there, but they don't always translate into instant riches. Iomega was such a "story" stock. The story was that the company's Zip drive was going to replace the floppy in the world's computers. The stock ran straight up to the sky to wait for the story to come true.

Turns out it wasn't that much of a story after all. In other cases, the story comes true but the stock you've bet on isn't the story teller. Witness the laser vision "story. And how about satellite communications? Great story, eh? Tell it to those who loaded up on Iridium's stock. Yes, you can make a quick buck chasing momentum, but you can lose it even quicker. You can never be sure there's a greater fool coming in after you, and that could make you the "greatest fool. An astonishing number of people don't understand how IPOs work.

For the most part, only institutions or megamillionaire private investors have access to IPOs. There have been a few exceptions, but it's almost universally dumb to buy a hot IPO on its first day of public trading.

As for those few times when the average investor IS offered shares in an IPO before public trading begins, my advice is to pass. My rule of thumb on IPOs is: If you want it, you can't get it, and if you can get it, you don't want it. Technicians regularly fall into periods where they tend to favor one or two indicators over all others. No harm in that, so long as the favored indicators are working, and keep on working. But the analyst should always be aware of the fact that as market conditions change, so will the efficacy of their indicators.

Indicators that work in one type of market may lead you badly astray in another. You have to be aware of what's working now and what's not, and be ready to shift when conditions shift. There is no Holy Grail indicator that works all the time and in all markets. If you think you've found it, get ready to lose money. Instead, take your trading signals from the "accumulation of evidence" among ALL of your indicators, not just one.

The Picks Port commits this sin on a regular basis, but that's mostly because of the nature of the beast. I have to be more short term oriented than I'd prefer to be because you, my subscribers, tend to be more short term oriented than you probably should be. Video: Walk-Thru. Video: Betting Estimated Returns.

Navigation Tips. Video: Price Source. Bet Preview Options. Video: Market Gauge. Video: Reward Levels. Clever Bet Tools. Video: Custom Levels. Video: Edit Prices. MyBets History. Education: Webinars. Education: Pro Punters. New Features - Faster Brain. New Features - Instant Bet Preview. RewardBet FAQ. Contact Us. About This Section. RewardBet Blog. Paper: Funding Racing. Aus Sport Proposal. Better Returns Analysis. Fun Ideas. Bet Now.

Gregory Conroy. First Internet Betting Site: "iBet" I was a major part of that team, designing much of the user-interface responsible for placing the bets and also programming and designing the supporting information such as Audio Replays, TAB Ticker — a stock market-like racing information display and many of the form and related odds displays. The opportunities of the Internet and what they provided to wagering have been immense.

Technology Has Driven Wagering For each successive shift in technological capacity, there have been similar improvements in wagering capability and services. Qualities of the Perfect Wagering Product Very simple to use , with only a few steps so all racegoers could use it. It would have to translate to TAB tickets, operator request at the races, telephone betting, touch screen terminals.

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It means that you have jettisoned an underachiever stock and have freed up that dead money to put to better use elsewhere. Take your losses ruthlessly, put them out of mind and don't look back, and turn your attention to your next trade. This gets into the realm of money management. Diversification, the process of spreading your investment capital around in different assets and sectors to feather the vagaries of the market, has gotten a bit of a bum rap lately.

Some of the New Paradigm folks think the concept is "old fashioned. That's not investing, or even trading. It's gambling. Am I pleased I run a diversified portfolio, you bet I am. I have been investing in shares since and this is the second time this has happened to me. The other company was Scanro, during 's, a company which made world class surfboards.

A very large company in the USA went into administration who also made surfboards and the administrator sold off their stock very cheaply which meant nobody purchased Scanro's surfboards. Do you see the comparison? Preservation of capital is paramount. If you run out of chips, game over man. You may feel a bit envious the day your neighbor, who has put everything he owns into Zowie.

Ten percent should be your absolute max. One more thing. I've checked the U. Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and nowhere in either of them does it say that you have to have ALL of your money in the stock market ALL of the time. Money management also pertains to your total investment posture.

You'll need it when you see that next "can't miss" stock but don't want to sell any of your other "can't miss" stocks to raise the money to buy it. Your exposure should be consistent with your overall market analysis. As the market becomes more overbought, overextended, and overvalued, your cash level should rise accordingly.

Then as the market gets more oversold and undervalued, you can raise your market exposure accordingly. Being ALL in the market or ALL out of the market sounds like a good idea, and it may work out wonderfully on paper, but it rarely plays out so smoothly in real life and real investing. But you should still employ a sliding scale of exposure, based on your market analysis. Many of the daily e-mails I get are of the following type: "Nick, Zowie.

Time to buy?!!! It's tempting to try to pinpoint an exact low, especially if you're working with indictors like Fibonacci fan and time lines, cycle studies, regression channels, even plain old lateral support points. But it's almost always better to let the stock find its bottom on it's own, and then start to nibble. Just because a stock is down big doesn't mean it can't go down even bigger. In fact, a major multipoint drop is often just the beginning of a larger decline.

It's always satisfying to catch an exact low tick, but when it happens it's usually by accident. Let stocks and markets bottom and top on their own and limit your efforts to recognizing the fact "soon enough. Those who try usually get burned. Don't do it. For one thing, you shouldn't even have the opportunity, because you should have sold that dog before it got to the level where averaging down is tempting.

The pros average UP, not down; they got to be pros because they added to winners, not losers. And speaking of averaging UP, there's a right way to do it. And doubling your position is not it. If other words, if you already own shares and want to bolster your position, you buy 50 shares.

If you later decide to add more, you add 25 shares, etc. Why you should do it this way is too long to go into here, but that's the way the math works out best for you. Yes, there are stocks that will go up in bear markets and stocks that will go down in bull markets, but it's usually not worth the effort to hunt for them. And so should you. It doesn't make sense to counter trade the prevailing market trend.

If you're worried about a short term pullback, simply cut back on your trading, take a few profits, and build up your stash of cash. There are some fine companies with mediocre stocks, and some mediocre companies with fine stocks. Try not to confuse the two. This is, at heart, a fundamental analysis versus technical analysis issue. Some stocks simply have excellent trading characteristics while others don't.

Maybe it's a matter of liquidity, or a fanatical message board following, or a daytrading clientele, or whatever. Take Amazon. Is the company a good one? Who knows? Not me. But the stock is. I wouldn't want to have to hold it for 20 years, but I sure don't mind trading it a few days at a time, the "right" days.

That sucker moves. Baby Bells are at the other end of the spectrum. Fine companies for the most part. Wouldn't mind owning one for 20 years. But you have to pick your spots when you go to trade them, because a measly 3 point move in a single session is huge for a Baby Bell.

Also remember this: even the stock of a great company can go through a bad patch. IBM is a great company today, with its stock selling at , and it was a great company five years ago, when its stock was selling at This is related to confusing the company with its stock.

There are a lot of intriguing "stories" out there, but they don't always translate into instant riches. Iomega was such a "story" stock. The story was that the company's Zip drive was going to replace the floppy in the world's computers. The stock ran straight up to the sky to wait for the story to come true. Turns out it wasn't that much of a story after all.

In other cases, the story comes true but the stock you've bet on isn't the story teller. Witness the laser vision "story. And how about satellite communications? Great story, eh? Tell it to those who loaded up on Iridium's stock. Yes, you can make a quick buck chasing momentum, but you can lose it even quicker. You can never be sure there's a greater fool coming in after you, and that could make you the "greatest fool.

An astonishing number of people don't understand how IPOs work. For the most part, only institutions or megamillionaire private investors have access to IPOs. There have been a few exceptions, but it's almost universally dumb to buy a hot IPO on its first day of public trading.

As for those few times when the average investor IS offered shares in an IPO before public trading begins, my advice is to pass. My rule of thumb on IPOs is: If you want it, you can't get it, and if you can get it, you don't want it. Technicians regularly fall into periods where they tend to favor one or two indicators over all others.

No harm in that, so long as the favored indicators are working, and keep on working. But the analyst should always be aware of the fact that as market conditions change, so will the efficacy of their indicators. Indicators that work in one type of market may lead you badly astray in another.

You have to be aware of what's working now and what's not, and be ready to shift when conditions shift. There is no Holy Grail indicator that works all the time and in all markets. If you think you've found it, get ready to lose money.

Instead, take your trading signals from the "accumulation of evidence" among ALL of your indicators, not just one. The Picks Port commits this sin on a regular basis, but that's mostly because of the nature of the beast.

I have to be more short term oriented than I'd prefer to be because you, my subscribers, tend to be more short term oriented than you probably should be. Daytrading, of course, is the epitome of overtrading. Most people just are not equipped, emotionally, intellectually, or mechanically, to day trade and statistics tell us that most are not successful at it. If you are not making money at daytrading but keep on doing it anyway, you should examine your motives.

If it's the action you crave, take up skydiving. It's safer and cheaper. I get a kick out of people who insist that they're intermediate or long term investors, buy a stock, then anxiously ask whether they should bail the first time the stocks drops a point or two. Likely as not, the panic was induced by watching the tape, or hearing some talking head on CNBC.

Watching the ticker can be fun. It can be mesmerizing. But it can also be dangerous. It leads to emotionalism and to hasty decisions. Try not to make trading decisions when the market is in session. Do your analysis and make your plan when the market is closed and the White Noise of the television and the ticker is absent, then calmly execute your plan the following day.

You have your stop and your target. So go take a nap, or go to the movies, or mow the lawn. For Punters. For Operators. Betting Partners. Video: Walk-Thru. Video: Betting Estimated Returns. Navigation Tips. Video: Price Source. Bet Preview Options. Video: Market Gauge. Video: Reward Levels. Clever Bet Tools.

Video: Custom Levels. Video: Edit Prices. MyBets History. Education: Webinars. Education: Pro Punters. New Features - Faster Brain. New Features - Instant Bet Preview. RewardBet FAQ. Contact Us. About This Section. RewardBet Blog. Paper: Funding Racing. Aus Sport Proposal. Better Returns Analysis.

Fun Ideas. Bet Now. Gregory Conroy. First Internet Betting Site: "iBet" I was a major part of that team, designing much of the user-interface responsible for placing the bets and also programming and designing the supporting information such as Audio Replays, TAB Ticker — a stock market-like racing information display and many of the form and related odds displays. The opportunities of the Internet and what they provided to wagering have been immense.

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Play online poker-How to avoid over Betting Hazards in similar situations, is that the travels bet 80 to percent of their stack, regardless of floppy or location. Itu karena setelah teori di balik overbetting ditata, situasi di mana overbetting Kadang-kadang kita perlu memeriksa apakah ada floppy atau belokan, dan jika. 3 players of the tournament? b) Which starting cards are considered good in this cases? c) In the pré floppy I must just call or always raise?