Check out our interview with Joseph here. Managing risk is about understanding and managing variance in betting outcomes. The longer the odds, the greater the variance. The smaller the sample, the greater the variance. So two things you can do to reduce variance are to make shorter-priced bets or hedge them and to place more of them.
Of course, advising such a strategy runs the risk of encouraging problem gambling, so there is one very important risk management strategy that trumps all the others: don't bet at all if you can't afford to lose. Most of you reading this will lose in the long run no matter how untrue you think this statement to be. The obvious answer to this one would be by optimising your staking plan as much as possible. On a broader scale, a punter should of course never bet with more than he can afford to lose.
However, an often-overlooked aspect of risk management in betting is the psychological side of it. Losses are not only measured by the amount of money that comes out of your pocket, but also with the discomfort that they subject you to. Therefore, I think a good way to manage risk is to be psychologically prepared, by being aware of the drawdowns that could be expected with the current betting strategy.
Furthermore, it helps to gather some experience before betting large amounts of money. Getting through your first big drawdowns is usually painful, but also helps you to wise up and come to terms with the inevitable volatility of betting markets. Bankroll management is absolutely key when betting and ensuring you are set up to both encourage sensible growth but to also prevent yourself from going bust.
From a tipster point of view, it's important to ensure you have a handle on the strike-rate, average odds and the ensuing losing runs that you might experience given that. Yet within that, given he has a strike-rate of just If you didn't have the bankroll to cater for at least that size run and preferably a much bigger bank yet then you run the risk of going bust.
That all might sound obvious but you would be surprised how hard it can be in real life with real money when you are 41 points down and you can't see where your next winner is coming! Hence why bankroll management comes in to help and also to ensure your expectations are in check.
The other way to manage risk is to work out where you sit on the risk tolerance scale as we all have different approaches to how we handle risk in everyday life and that often applies to our betting too. It is important to state there is no 'right' or 'wrong' risk tolerance level as it's very much dependent on our individual preferences and characteristics.
With this in mind, a few months back we published a special feature and questionnaire on risk, so each SBC member could gauge their approach. It has been interesting to see the results thus far. This is important to know as if you identify as having a low risk tolerance for example and set up your staking in a high risk manner - chances are you will suffer when a bad run hits and not be able to weather the storm.
Making sure you stake in line with your risk tolerance is therefore a crucial part of betting and managing 'risk'. When I see the word risk with sports betting, I immediately think of risk of ruin. Systematic and structural measures should be put in place to avoid ruin, such as bet sizing and comprehensive analysis of bet history to ensure you are meeting your set criteria. In addition and as critical, consideration of the emotional swings that arise in the course of betting is required.
Navigating the emotions of winning and losing can be difficult and also add additional risk to protecting your ability to maximise your edge. Love getting the opinions from experts in the betting industry? Then subscribe to the Trademate Sports Podcast , where we interview the most important people in the sports betting industry. Here are the other questions we have got our industry experts to answer so far:.
Q1: Top 3 tips for betting beginners? Q3: How do you determine whether your betting results are based on luck or skill? Q4: Kelly criterion or flat staking: Which stake sizing strategy do you consider to be the best and why? Q5: What is the best method to use to make money from sports betting? Q6: How difficult is it to beat the sports betting markets? How efficient are the odds? Q8: Is there a best sport to bet on?
If so, what is it? Q9: Assuming you have an edge, at what point can you start accurately evaluating your results and say that variance has played out? Q What is the one thing you would like to see change in the gambling industry? Q Do you think emotions play a part in people's sports betting results? New players can be compared to the existing ones to predict their future profitability. In addition to gaining knowledge about the player and understanding the risk level of the event, operators should use back-office systems that detect unwanted betting behaviors.
The system should also set a risk limit for each sporting event in order to define how much an operator can risk on an outcome. This will determine the maximum amount a player can win on an event. If bets are too high and the limit is reached, the operator can choose to adjust the odds, take on a larger risk, hedge some of the risks, or stop accepting bets.
Efficient risk management depends on classifying players correctly, understanding the risks associated with events, and using the right back-office tools. Operators should have a high-quality automated system aimed at managing risks, as well as being able to make important decisions themselves.
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He pulls out a stack of casino chips and declares:. If it comes up 1 through 57 you win, if it comes 58 through I win. How much do you want to bet? How would you respond? Obviously you accept, but you are uncertain as to exactly how much you should wager — you are a solid favorite, but not an overwhelming one.
This series of articles will provide the single most comprehensive investment optimization guide available on the internet, and will show you how to size your bets according to 1 your risk tolerance and financial goals and 2 the duration number of bets of your investment. Just as we use rigorous mathematical models to consistently pick winners against the spread, so too will we use simple but powerful financial formulas to achieve the greatest risk-adjusted return possible from those selections.
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