nfl parlay betting strategy

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Nfl parlay betting strategy miss england 2021 betting

Nfl parlay betting strategy

Depending on the book you are placing your bet, the odds of the money line are going to be different. So, when factoring the differing money line, they will spit out a different payout based on the parlay. Remember, the 13 to 5 payout is assuming to win odds. If the Ravens are favorites, it makes it much closer to a 5 to 5 bet.

That is why parlaying the money line can become an intriguing option. Of course, while you can use this in the correlated manner of the Ravens and the under or the Saints and the over, you can also parlay anything you want together. If you like the under in the Ravens game, and the Saints to win, you can parlay those two together.

However, another common practice when it comes to parlays is taking two teams and using them as parlay legs together. However, both of them are seven-point favorites. You know they are going to win, but so do most people. The question is can they win by seven? Again, avoid the spread by using a parlay. Take the Texans and Jaguars on their money line at odds that are close to 2 to 1. However, with the 13 to 5 payout, it becomes a standard bet featuring two teams that you are confident can win.

You have just used the parlay to make an even bet out of two heavy favorites. While the practice is less common, it is more profitable to parlay underdogs on their money line, as they have much better odds. They are playing their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens are banged up but bring in a good defense.

You know that despite the Pittsburgh Steelers being underdogs, they are division rivals and every game is close. When adding in the Ravens being banged up, there is a chance the Steelers could go into their division rivals house and win. This is a great chance to capitalize in a big way on a correlated underdog parlay. The Steelers are going to upset the Ravens because the Ravens will not score enough to win.

But, the Ravens are favored to win because their defense is so good that the Steelers will struggle. The under and the Steelers are correlated. Of course, that means that parlaying two underdogs together would be an even bigger payout. You are taking two teams favored to lose to not only cover against the spread but win the game outright. It is obviously a risk, but with that comes a considerable reward thanks to the odds. So, the question becomes, when is the time to pull the parlay?

At what point does it become an advantage play instead of an exotic wager. Arguably the best path is the correlated parlay. In this regard, you are likely to look for a defensive team that is facing a mediocre offensive team. If you think they can win in a shutout, a correlated parlay of the favorite and the under is not a bad strategy. You can also fade teams with a correlated parlay.

For example, Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints offense is not nearly as good on grass as they are in their dome. When you get the Saints outdoors against a good defense, taking the other team along with the under could be a smart play, as the Saints are likely overvalued in this situation due to most of their stats coming in domes.

Of course, on the other side, the Saints and the over is an excellent idea for a correlated parlay, along with any star quarterback who does not have a strong defense. The quarterback will keep them in it, but the defense will make it competitive.

Using a parlay to avoid the point spread is another good form of betting parlays in the NFL. Taking two favorites together is an optimal decision. One should watch for taking a road favorite, though. No matter the spread, the road favorite is a riskier proposition than any home favorite. Because you need to hit both bets to win, you should be looking for two home favorites to avoid a big point spread.

Another thing to watch for is teaser juice. Some lines in the NFL get juiced up to seven because sports books are protecting themselves from teasers. Teasers are similar to parlays in that they give you six points on each side, but both sides need to hit. If you think a line should be four and or five, and it is seven, that is because the six points of a teaser does not give the favorite points on the other end in this scenario.

With that in mind, some teams laying seven points are going to be overvalued. If you like a seven-point favorite, a better value play would be to pair them with a slight favorite, or even your favorite underdog bet of the week. Every site across the internet is going to spit out points per games, yards per game, and tell you meaningless trends. These are not nearly as predictive as one would think, and that typically lends into Vegas getting the better of the everyday bettor.

So, what are stats to look into? More predictive stats come on a play by play basis. Think about it; the Ravens could have a great defense. However, this week their offense gets the worst defense in the NFL. The Ravens go up at the half. However, the defense gets soft in the second half and gives up 28 points. They gave up 7, 10, and 14 in their first three games and now are giving up and now are giving up over two scores per game.

This happens in legitimately every NFL season. A player who fumbles once every carries had his one fumble. It turns into a touchdown. The stats skew significantly in that small sample size, but over the long term, you know that player will not fumble again. On top of that, there is the idea of factoring in the opponent. A team who lost to a couple of one-win teams and has no proven wins is not as good as a team who has three hard-fought losses to contenders and has two division wins under their belt.

Schedule and situation matter. This makes things like yards allowed per game and points allowed per game flawed. A play-by-play outlook is more predictive than common stats because it is a bigger sample size. A website such as FootballOutsiders.

They also factor in the situation. An yard reception on third down and 24 is not as impressive as an yard reception on third down and nine. They look at each play regarding success and staying ahead of the sticks. On first down and ten, four yards gained is a successful play.

Otherwise, you are statistically in a passing situation based on down and distance. On second down, the ball needs to get inside of four yards on third down. Statistics show third down, and four is converted at a much higher rate than third and five or higher. On third down, no play is successful if it does not get a first down. When looking at how efficient teams are in staying ahead of the sticks and by breaking it down to a per game basis to increase the sample size, you can begin to get an idea as to who may or may not have a deceiving record.

This gives an advantage as a gambler. When a specific player is out of the game, everyone wonders how much of an impact it will have on the NFL game. The fact of the matter is that every position has to be looked at individually. The first factor to come in has to be positional value.

Not every position is the same. A quarterback holds the ball every play on offense. They control the flow. They are the most valuable player in football. They will have a much more significant impact than a tight end, who catches four or five passes and blocks every once in a while.

When it comes to positional value, the idea is that quarterback dictates the game and is the most important. Understanding the value of each quarterback is the most important factor. The next most valuable position is the player who can attack the quarterback.

Everybody is less accurate with someone bearing down on them and to get pressure in a quarterbacks face is the only way to stop receivers from running free in open space. Most bettors value edge rushers more than interior rushers, as edge rushers have to loop around tackles to get to the quarterback. It is much more rare to find someone so fast and athletic, but also physical to fight with tackles. This makes edge rushers the next most valuable position. Interior rushers would be next because they can move quarterbacks off of their spot in the pocket.

They can also clog step-up lanes and force the quarterback to leave the pocket and run into the arms of the edge rushers. While attacking the quarterback is the next most important to quarterback, protecting said quarterback obviously has to be just as important. Tackles are similar to edge rushers in that they are rare in quantity and skill set.

How would this hedging process play out? Quite simply, if the first leg of a typical two-leg parlay wins, the bettor would know of this result either before kickoff or during the early stages of the second game.

If the second leg of the parlay goes through, the bettor cashes the initial ticket. If the second leg of the parlay were to fail, the bettor is still able to net some return on their investment by taking the opposing side through the hedge bet. Looking for instances in which you can parlay two related bets together is another sound strategy to implement. If you are incorporating NFL prop betting into your handicapping, there can be any number of prop offerings that directly correlate with one another.

In the same scenario, a preference for a big passing day for a quarterback could also correlate nicely with an over bet on the total for the game. This strategy is not foolproof, and blindly parlaying bets that seem to be correlated is not advisable. But when the opportunity presents itself, this is a great facet of parlay betting to keep in mind. As alluded to in the example from above, one of the best parts about parlays is the ability to combine multiple moneyline favorites and generate a much more favorable payout.

There are any number of different combinations to implement this strategy, and it ultimately boils down to what the odds are on the games in question. Use this strategy in moderation and with caution, for even the biggest of NFL favorites are prone to being upset. A specific kind of parlay that is popular when it comes to betting on NFL games is the teaser.

Different sportsbooks will offer different options and rules for buying points, but the most common form is the 6-point teaser. The basic premise of this type of bet is that it gives the bettor six points to add to the point spread for a game. This type of bet is very useful when it comes to implementing key NFL betting numbers into the handicapping process, discussed in detail HERE.

The catch with teasers is that to tease one line, you must parlay it with a second teased line. The other thing to be mindful of with teasers is that, contrary to standard parlays, the odds go against you. For typical spread odds of , a two-leg 6-point teaser has odds. In the image below, a 6-point teaser bet would move the Chiefs from point favorites down to -4 and the Bears from 1. If one goes about it in a smart and strategical manner, there are several advantages to be gained from making parlays a part of an NFL betting endeavor.

The opportunity to obtain greater value on big favorites is enticing for any bettor regardless of bankroll size. For those operating on smaller budgets, parlays offer a much more lucrative payout when you can combine a large favorite with more even odds or put large favorites together. As touched upon in the strategy section above, parlays are easy to hedge. Even if you are unable to parlay games with different start times, you can hedge all at once by betting each of the two or three games in your parlay in the opposite direction.

Finally, parlays are a great way to utilize any free play bonus that you get from your sportsbook. Since free play only yields the winning payout of the bets and the free play wager amount is not returned, it makes sense to try and get as much of a payout as possible. Being able to place large-payout parlay bets with smaller amounts of free play money is a great strategy to maximize your bonus funds.

With the good comes the bad. While parlay betting offers NFL bettors various benefits, there are also numerous risks to be mindful of. It is easy to get carried away when combining bets to form a parlay. Again, the importance of not exceeding two or three legs in a single parlay cannot be overstated. Parlaying with a limit is practical from both an odds and betting value standpoint.

Another thing to remember when considering NFL parlays is that simply parlaying favorites together does not guarantee success. Parity reigns king in the NFL as much as any other professional sports league. Blindly throwing parlays of favorites together every week is a recipe for failure.

Parlays are not a shortcut around doing good research and picking your spots. Finally, it is much more difficult to shop lines when you are looking to parlay bets together. Trying to find one sportsbook that offers better odds on each of the two or three games you are hoping to combine is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

As such, betting in the form of parlays compromises one of the most important strategies of sports betting. Parlay betting can add a layer of excitement to the NFL betting experience. It is important to approach parlay betting strategically. It is critical to not get overzealous and limit the number of games you parlay to two or three, maximum.


The down side is that the more teams you add to a parlay play the higher the odds are stacked against you to win. Sometimes it can be hard to pick even a single winner so the catch to winning a parlay is that you have to win every one of your picks. The only exception is in the case of a PUSH when two teams tie with the closing point spread.

In that case, you total parlay is reduced by one team. For example, if you put together a four-team parlay at The betting odds for parlays using point spreads is fixed and based on the total number of teams you group into one bet. Betting parlays for MLB games is an attractive option since you will be working off money line odds as opposed to a point spread that is commonly used in sports such as football and basketball.

When betting money lines you only have to pick the straight-up winners, but keep in mind that your payout odds will be based on the actual money line odds for each of your picks. The top online sportsbooks should have a parlay calculator on their website where you can enter the actual money line for each of your individual picks to provide a projected payout of that particular parlay if you win.

Whether you are betting money line parlays for baseball and hockey or point spread parlays for football and basketball, there are a few betting tips and strategies that you should always employ to give yourself the best chance to win. First and foremost, you need to properly handicap each game as an individual pick before grouping them together in a parlay bet.

Winning parlays is all about your overall confidence level for each one of the picks you decide to group together. Only the bets which do not exceed the original deposit amount will be included in the turnover requirements. Of course, fans of NFL betting know that the great reward comes with some great risk.

NFL parlays are a reasonable part of portfolio as long as you are making calculated decisions. One of the better strategies with NFL parlays is to include the big moneylines into your series of wagers. You might see a big point favorite on the board and think to yourself that this team is a good bet to win outright. Parlays are quite tempting because when you start adding selections and seeing just how much you can win with a small bet, it gets exciting.

However, you want to be realistic. Instead of focusing on how much you might win if everything goes your way, your priority should be about focusing on making the best selections. But how realistic is that outcome? Sometimes when bettors get enamored with the payout of a parlay, they forget one of the basics: shop around.

However, the very same parlay at Sportsbook No. We know that parlays can be risky, but there is a time when they make sense. They should be considered part of a diverse portfolio. Think about it as an investor: You have your safe stocks and you take a shot with something a little riskier that could payoff.

The same goes with parlays. One thing to note with NFL parlays is that almost all sportsbooks have different kinds of limits with them.

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The lure of a larger payout from accurately predicting the outcome of two or more offerings together instead of just one entices many recreational NFL bettors. While you are unlikely to find many sharps playing tickets with massive parlay combinations, there are very real benefits to parlaying two or three bets together.

This article contains an introduction and overview of parlay betting. It will also cover several tips and strategies bettors can implement when it comes to betting NFL parlays. The last sections allude to various benefits and risks of parlay betting. By definition, a parlay is a single bet that combines together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. Other common names for parlay bets include accumulator, combo, or multi bets.

Parlays garner much of their popularity as a result of the increased payouts that they offer compared to traditional straight betting. The combination of multiple bets into one decreases the odds on the entire parlay bet winning. These longer odds naturally result in higher payouts. The best way to illustrate exactly how a parlay bet works is to show an example. Suppose a bettor is interested in betting each of the favorites in the three NFL games shown below on the moneyline.

Because betting moneyline favorites means that you will be dealing with a significant amount of juice, this can lead to an extremely limited profit, especially for bettors operating with a smaller bankroll that they must distribute across the three games. Parlay betting to the rescue! After selecting each of the three bets from the odds list individually, they show up on the bet slip as seen in the image below. When it comes to how sportsbooks generate parlay odds, systems can vary.

For most Las Vegas books, the standard multiplier is as follows:. Most odds will be similar regardless of where you bet, however, several online and offshore books offer better odds than Las Vegas sites for parlays with three or more legs. There is a common perception that parlays are sucker bets.

While this is not generalizable to all parlay bets across the board, there is a point on the ladder at which sportsbooks gain a tremendous mathematical advantage. You plan to grow this amount by betting your entire bankroll on a single game each week for eight weeks. You will either go or lose it all. Here is what the potential winnings would look like assuming every bet was made with odds of Compare those payouts to the standard parlay odds calculator shown above. The advantage that belongs to the sportsbooks starts to take shape with parlays of four different bets.

The advantage only grows from there. While the exact numbers will vary for different books and bets, this basic premise is a key factor in one of the parlay betting strategies discussed in the next section. Now that we have covered the basics of parlay betting, the question becomes how to incorporate this form of betting into an NFL wagering venture.

This section discusses several things to keep in mind as you choose when and where to combine individual NFL game bets into a parlay. The first key to successful NFL parlay betting is to limit your selections. This rule applies to all other forms of sports betting as well.

As a general rule, most intelligent bettors never exceed three legs in a parlay wager. Two-team parlays are the most common, with three-team parlays being quite rare among the sharp betting community. When you consider how sportsbooks generally determine the odds for parlays of a given size as discussed above, capping the size of your parlays at three makes even more sense.

Going beyond three legs shifts the advantage drastically in favor of the sportsbook. In cases of four or more legs, you are most likely better off from an odds and profitability standpoint to make each wager individually. The simple yet effective strategy of parlaying games that have different start times fits right in with the typical NFL Sunday lineup. With games starting in the early afternoon or morning depending on where in the country you are located and continuing through primetime, finding games with different scheduled kickoffs is not hard.

Even if the later game starts before the conclusion of the first game, the bettor can still utilize live betting to hedge and at the very least, limit their loss from the original parlay wager. How would this hedging process play out? Quite simply, if the first leg of a typical two-leg parlay wins, the bettor would know of this result either before kickoff or during the early stages of the second game. If the second leg of the parlay goes through, the bettor cashes the initial ticket.

If the second leg of the parlay were to fail, the bettor is still able to net some return on their investment by taking the opposing side through the hedge bet. Are NFL parlays profitable? What can I do to maximize my edge against the bookmakers in these potentially large payoff but high variance type of bets? Parlays are single wagers that are linked together, all of which must win for the parlay to be graded as a winner. Parlays are the American equivalent to accumulators , which are widely used in popular European betting markets.

The odds on parlays are greater than individual side or total bets. All three of the above teams would have to cover for me to win my bet. If two of my picks cover the point spread, but one of them ends in a push, the parlay then goes from three teams to two teams. If I bet a two-team parlay and push the one of my picks, it normally just becomes a straight bet at at the vast majority of online sportsbooks. Parlays, just like every other NFL wager have built in vig for the sportsbooks.

As you can see, the sportsbook have a considerable edge on bettors with the vig. While it is smaller, but still significant when players bet two or three-team parlays, it gets larger and larger as players add more teams to their bet. The odds past two and three-team parlays start to get considerably worse and are downright robbery when the bettors hit 7-team parlays.

This can be when a bettor parlays a side or total with a prop or other non bet , and though the vig will still be a factor, bettors can usually get a better price on their wager than just going with the standard odds. The increase in odds will vary but sportsbook, but is certainly something NFL bettors should try to utilize. As we can see from the table above, it is clear parlays have a significant bookmakers edge, especially as bettors begin to increase the number of teams. One of the main reasons for the increase in the edge is the risk and variance taken by the sportsbooks if someone should hit one of these bets for massive money.

A winning ticket on a team parlay pays out immensely even with the massive edge by the sportsbooks. Also, parlays are high odds bets with a low rate of success and will increase variance more so than straight wagers on sides and totals. Sportsbooks are hard to beat, especially in NFL betting where line shopping is vital. When I bet a parlay, I essentially throw line shopping out the window.

Sure, I could luck out here and there and get the best numbers on all my games at the same book, but that rarely happens. Finding the best lines available at a variety of books and betting individual wagers is usually a better option. Even though parlays are generally —EV bets, there are some situations where we can bring the sportsbooks edge down considerably and give ourselves the best chance to beat the book despite the vig.

These are by far the best options for parlay bettors. As bettors add more teams, the vig continues to increase, making even 4 or 5-team parlays much worse bets than one or two teams. As we get closer towards 10 teams, the odds on parlays are among the worst bets for sports bettors. When bettors first deposit at a sportsbook they are rewarded with a bonus that usually comes in the form of a freeplay.

Since you are essentially playing with house money, your odds will increase on all wagers since you are not staking any of your own money.