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But this value can be said to measure a little more than just the toughness of a team's defense. It can also give a reading as to how many mistakes turnovers, penalties, etc. All of these tendencies, of course, are crucial in determining who wins and who covers the spread in most football games. Bet on this weekend's games with your credit card! Looking to get some action on the games? Get your bets down in minutes using your credit card. Click Here To Start Betting. Most teams will fall into a range between 6.
It's not a large range of difference, but it has been shown to come in handy when placing a wager. For example, those Steelers and their 5. Well, as we all know, Pittsburgh beat the Bengals for the second time in three games last year in Cincinnati, and went on to defeat the Colts in Indianapolis and the Broncos in Denver on their way to the Super Bowl. Other values from last season include, near the top, the Chicago Bears at 4.
All of those teams made the playoffs, and together they went against the spread during the regular season. There are all kinds of tips, strategies, and information available to bettors to aid in gaining the greatest edge possible. Just like the handicapping process for other sports and leagues, there are several key statistics and numbers to be aware of when betting on the NFL. This article will provide several examples of each and discuss why they are of significance to the NFL betting process.
Every sport has its own set of key numbers to pay specific attention to when shopping the lines and searching for potential wagering options. Key numbers refer to the most common margin s of victory. As the scoring systems for different sports differ, so do the key numbers. By knowing the most common margins of victory in a sport, you can better predict outcomes and ultimately place bets around these numbers.
It is worth noting that while they help predict individual game spread and totals bets, key numbers are not useful for other forms of sports betting , such as futures. The following shows a list of the probabilities for each margin of victory between 0 and 21 points in NFL games dating back to according to Wizard of Odds.
The major key numbers are expounded upon below. A team earns 3 points for kicking a field goal, thus making it a number of prime importance for NFL bettors. How many games do we see where it comes down to a last-second field goal to decide the outcome? With the amount of relative parity in the NFL compared to other sports leagues, you are likely to see several close games in a single week and many more across the lifespan of an entire season.
The key number of 7 comes into being because it is the number of points a team earns when they score a touchdown 6 points and then kick an extra point. While 7 is the second most common margin of victory in the NFL, the drop-off from the first key number of 3 is significant. When you add 3 and 7 together, you get This is the third key number to note when betting NFL spreads.
Many games see a team already up a touchdown tack on a field goal late to increase their lead to While 10 is the smallest and most common combination number to be aware of, note the slightly higher probabilities for margins that reflect other combination numbers such as 14 a two-touchdown margin , 17 two touchdowns plus a field goal and 21 three touchdowns. Given that totals wagering deals with higher numbers than ATS bets, it makes sense that the range of key numbers for NFL totals would be greater than those for the spread.
According to the same Wizard of Odds research, eight different numbers have proven significant with a lot of NFL game results. The big four are 43, 44, 41, and The second level, if you will, are the numbers 51, 47, 40, and It should be noted that the final scores that might generate any one of these key totals numbers are not limited to any single combination.
Being familiar with the key numbers in both NFL ATS and totals betting is helpful, but as a bettor, it is important to know how to translate this knowledge to your handicapping process. The following sections outline strategies for using these key numbers to your advantage.
It is important to always keep an eye out for key numbers showing up amongst NFL betting lines. They can show up as exact key numbers themselves or in the form of a small half-point variation up or down. For example, a common NFL point spread is 2. It is important to remember that bookmakers are aware of the key numbers for the NFL as well. As a result, they are often hesitant to move lines off of a key number.
If you notice a point spread sitting firmly on an NFL key number of 3 or 7 at one book, it is worth your while to shop around at other sportsbooks. Doing so can lead to situations like the following. Note the difference just off of the key number of three at one sportsbook compared to the other.
Discrepancies in liability or the analysis of oddsmakers could lead to finding a hook on that same game elsewhere, as in the example above. If the hook is in favor of the side you wish to back, you will have found a much better opportunity than simply accepting the original line. One popular way to bet point spreads and totals involves buying points. This option affords bettors the ability to bet an adjusted version of the line on a game with increased juice.
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